The Race For 2024

[Elixir]

Optimism is good but unfortunately I tend to pessimism. (Is this chemical imbalance in brain?) I fear tears will be flowing in November

With a certainty.

Yes. The open question is "whose tears?".

Dumb fucking question. No one benefits from a Trump presidency, not even his idiot supporters.

Thanks, Captain Obvious.
There will be plenty of tears without a Trump presidency to contribute to the flood.

 

[Swammerdami]

I do not like misinformation to stand:

Optimism is good but unfortunately I tend to pessimism. (Is this chemical imbalance in brain?) I fear tears will be flowing in November

With a certainty.

Yes. The open question is "whose tears?".

Dumb fucking question. No one benefits from a Trump presidency, not even his idiot supporters.

Mine is just a QUIBBLE. "No one" is exaggerated.
No one at all? Among all 8 billion? Au contraire there are clear beneficiaries:
* Vladimir Putin
* various other fascists and fascism seekers
* various felons about to be pardoned
* many elites, who will find financial benefits too good to pass up
* evangelical preachers, gun manufacturers, QOPAnon politicians, etc., who feed off the fascism frenzy.
* others? (expand this list)

Thanks, Captain Obvious.
There will be plenty of tears without a Trump presidency to contribute to the flood.

 

[Politesse]

I do not like misinformation to stand:

Optimism is good but unfortunately I tend to pessimism. (Is this chemical imbalance in brain?) I fear tears will be flowing in November

With a certainty.

Yes. The open question is "whose tears?".

Dumb fucking question. No one benefits from a Trump presidency, not even his idiot supporters.

Mine is just a QUIBBLE. "No one" is exaggerated.
No one at all? Among all 8 billion? Au contraire there are clear beneficiaries:
* Vladimir Putin
* various other fascists and fascism seekers
* various felons about to be pardoned
* many elites, who will find financial benefits too good to pass up
* evangelical preachers, gun manufacturers, QOPAnon politicians, etc., who feed off the fascism frenzy.
* others? (expand this list)

Thanks, Captain Obvious.
There will be plenty of tears without a Trump presidency to contribute to the flood.

Fine, okay, no one who I like will benefit from a Trump presidency.

 

[Elixir]

Fine, okay, no one who I like will benefit from a Trump presidency.

My problem is that people I like will almost certainly get hurt in the melée following a Trump loss.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

First we need to get to Trump losing. While the tea leaves are favorable, America is grumpy right now, and on several things that aren't either real (exploding crime rates), outdated (inflation), or exaggerated (hordes of hordes invading America!). And grumpy people can be quite unpredictable when voting. I mean other than people that suck up the white nationalist stuff. They'll vote for Trump, they love white nationalism. They don't want to be replaced.

 

[Politesse]

First we need to get to Trump losing.

He won't, though. Or if he does, it will be by such a slight margin that he can continue "the great lie" and simply refuse to cede power.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I do not like misinformation to stand:

Optimism is good but unfortunately I tend to pessimism. (Is this chemical imbalance in brain?) I fear tears will be flowing in November

With a certainty.

Yes. The open question is "whose tears?".

Dumb fucking question. No one benefits from a Trump presidency, not even his idiot supporters.

Mine is just a QUIBBLE. "No one" is exaggerated.
No one at all? Among all 8 billion? Au contraire there are clear beneficiaries:
* Vladimir Putin
* various other fascists and fascism seekers
* various felons about to be pardoned
* many elites, who will find financial benefits too good to pass up
* evangelical preachers, gun manufacturers, QOPAnon politicians, etc., who feed off the fascism frenzy.
* others? (expand this list)

Thanks, Captain Obvious.
There will be plenty of tears without a Trump presidency to contribute to the flood.

Actually gun manufacturers will be sad! Ironically, gun sales go way up during democratic regimes; down during republican terms.

 

[Swammerdami]

Actually gun manufacturers will be sad! Ironically, gun sales go way up during democratic regimes; down during republican terms.

Yes.

Some of these factions WILL benefit from Chaos however, which is almost as likely as an uncontested Biden win. Using my previous guesstimates:

25% Outright victory for non-fascists

15% . . . . Biden wins decisively​

10% . . . . Biden wins a very close election, riots are subdued​

20% Chaos

14% . . . . Biden wins a very close election, severe riots ensue​

4% . . . . Biden wins a very close election, a sort of Civil War follows​

2% . . . . similar to preceding but Trump would have won w/o RFK​

48% Trump victory

14% . . . . Trump wins (Biden would have won w/o RFK)​

17% . . .. Trump wins in a close election (Biden wins popular vote)​

10% . . . . Trump wins (close popular vote)​

5% . . . . Trump wins, and wins popular vote​

2% . . . . Biden drops out, Trump wins​

7% Miscellaneous

2% . . . . Biden drops out, Trump loses​

2% . . . . Nikki Haley wins​

3% . . . . Other​

Polymarket now shows Trump 50%; Biden 42% This "line" has moved quickly from about 45%, 45% just one week ago.

 

[Swammerdami]

“We are now on the brink,” [noted fund manager Ray Dalio] told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday, estimating the probability of strife erupting at somewhere between 35% to 40%.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns U.S. is ‘on the brink’ and estimates a more than one in three chance of civil war

The Bridgewater hedge fund founder recommends only investing in the 'best parts' of the United States and moving the rest to more stable and attractive jurisdictions like Malaysia and Vietnam.

fortune.com

 

[Loren Pechtel]

However, people noticed the mountains in the background, which aren’t a part of the topography of the New Jersey shore, and immediately ascertained the photo was fake.

In fact, as the community note that was eventually attached to Stone’s post noted, the photo was actually from a 1994 Rod Stewart concert in Rio De Janeiro.

Not surprisingly, Stone’s attempt at misinformation was heavily mocked on X, formerly Twitter.

Asshole.

How many brain cells would it need to realize one should crop out the mountains?

Moscow's photoshoppers aren't used to actual scrutiny of their work being done. Nor does it probably matter since the ones they are appealing to won't be doing so with a critical eye.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Roger Stone just clicked on the wrong photo when he was getting his Xit together. Here's the actual New Jersey rally crowd:

View attachment 46120

Just look at all those Trump fans!

Thank-you for the correction. I think they are throwing stones at Trump somewhere inside.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Roger Stone just clicked on the wrong photo when he was getting his Xit together. Here's the actual New Jersey rally crowd:

View attachment 46120

Just look at all those Trump fans!

Thank-you for the correction. I think they are throwing stones at Trump somewhere inside.

They’re chanting, “Make America great again”. I heard them. I know I did.

 

[Swammerdami]

I realize there are some GOPsters campaigning for Biden, but how many big name Republicans are making earnest-most effort?

Few?, Am I wrong? Neither Romney nor Liz Cheney have appeared on TV endorsing a vote for Biden? If enough "conservatives" denounced Trump wouldn't SOME Independents get the message?

(If I'm wrong and they've been earnestly campaigning for Biden, I apologize.)

The upcoming Presidential election truly is perilous, beyond any compare. While Biden will be favored to win the popular vote, Trump is poised to win the electoral vote, or at least make it close enough to put up a 'Stop the Steal' movement, better rehearsed since 2020. Chances are "better" than even-money that, as I write, we are all eye-witnesses to the Death of American Democracy.

And yet still do Romney et al take the time to strongly endorse Biden? If not, why not? Could they be swayed by potential gains in wealth or influence after Trump victory?

 

[ZiprHead]

Romney just said the would have pardoned Trump immediately if he was the next president and it was disappointing that Biden didn't do so.

Republicans. The party of personal responsibility.

 

[Swammerdami]

A recent New York Times poll shows that 52% think Trump is guilty in the Hush-money/Falsification trial. 51% agree that if convicted, Trump should go to prison.

52%. 51%. In olden days we called those majorities. But will these anti-Trumpers bother to vote?
This orange-colored traitor and sociopath is still favored to become President of the U.S.A. again.

 

[Elixir]

A recent New York Times poll shows that 52% think Trump is guilty in the Hush-money/Falsification trial. 51% agree that if convicted, Trump should go to prison.

52%. 51%. In olden days we called those majorities. But will these anti-Trumpers bother to vote?
This orange-colored traitor and sociopath is still favored to become President of the U.S.A. again.

I fear they will elect the fucker, but my rational brain says not likely.

 

[unapologetic]

The important thing to try to remember here is that he was unsuccessful.

Failure is not innocence. And likely to inspire a retry.

A couple of dozen people went walk about in the Capitol building. Mostly peaceful so I would say, not really a riot.

'Mostly peaceful'? It was a RIOT that got them in the building. Would the people who died call it peaceful?

Dude, Trump was kicked out of office in 2020. Stop acting like Trump actually managed to overturn the election.

Sucess or failure, It is still treason.

 

[ZiprHead]

A recent New York Times poll shows that 52% think Trump is guilty in the Hush-money/Falsification trial. 51% agree that if convicted, Trump should go to prison.

52%. 51%. In olden days we called those majorities. But will these anti-Trumpers bother to vote?
This orange-colored traitor and sociopath is still favored to become President of the U.S.A. again.

I'd like that but almost no one goes to prison for these crimes.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

A recent New York Times poll shows that 52% think Trump is guilty in the Hush-money/Falsification trial. 51% agree that if convicted, Trump should go to prison.

52%. 51%. In olden days we called those majorities. But will these anti-Trumpers bother to vote?
This orange-colored traitor and sociopath is still favored to become President of the U.S.A. again.

I don't think the numbers mean what you think. In this case I think it's a matter of not understanding the crime.