Why you should vote for Trump

TSwizzle said:

Male bovine excrement. Gala apples used to be about $.49 per pound, they have been over $1.99 per pound for over a year now. Meat prices are horrendously expensive. Everything is way more expensive. Gas is well over $5 a gallon in SoCal.

Click to expand...

I doubt that EVERYTHING is way more expensive. There are PERCEPTIONS about pricing. For example, someone hoping that prices rise when a politician they dislike is in charge is likely to focus on prices which are up. Just to illustrate that prices fluctuate independently, I graphed nine, mostly global prices from the 2011 to the present. The selections were poorly chosen (and Fred lacks many prices one might want to plot). If I were to do again I'd plot various categories of U.S. producer prices. These are not the consumer prices Mr. Swiz wants to look at; but I don't know any site which has good data for that, let alone graphing tools as good as Fred's.



The 28-month Covid price shock is clearly visible. Since then, global prices for cotton, corn, steel pipes and wheat(!) have fallen back, almost to Trump-era prices if my eyes make out the colors correctly. Is it not the case that it is with products where an oligarchy (or "rent-collectors") has control (or where a labor union has exerted recent power!) that U.S. prices have not fallen back to pre-Covid levels?

Petroleum pricing is heavily influenced by Saudi Arabia and Russia. (Although not allied with Iran, Saudi and Russia are both big dogs in the Axis of Evil given (a) willingness to use mischief and violence, (b) economic power (in this case, supply and price of petroleum), (c) hope that Trump will win the November election.

Questions for discussion:

(1) Will Russia and Saudi deliberately squeeze petroleum production and/or raise prices during this year's early autumn? Both do hope Trump wins, and high gasoline prices will devastate Biden's chances. (How's our Strategic Reserve?)

(2) Why the high price of apples? What about other basic U.S. groceries? Can someone, preferably with citation, prepare data on prices of other basic foodstuffs?

Jarhyn said:

What I'm shocked at is how so few people have short positions on this... It seems like a money maker for sure.

Click to expand...

Yawn. We been over this.
In order to “short” DJT and hold a short position on $1000 worth of the stock, your borrowing fee would add up to $5-6000 per year. (As of today 5/6/24).
Most shares were already shorted as soon as they were issued.
There is no control, no product, no real prospects other than the ability to get people to prop up the price.

For those of you arguing that Trump is better for the economy, here is a good analysis of the real costs of his stupid tax cuts for billionaires:


To summarize, they were a gift to the Uber rich and large corporation. They did not pay off to normal working people as promised as this chart shows:



Trump’s economic policies suck.

Elixir said:

Jarhyn said:

What I'm shocked at is how so few people have short positions on this... It seems like a money maker for sure.

Click to expand...

Yawn. We been over this.
In order to “short” DJT and hold a short position on $1000 worth of the stock, your borrowing fee would add up to $5-6000 per year. (As of today 5/6/24).
Most shares were already shorted as soon as they were issued.
There is no control, no product, no real prospects other than the ability to get people to prop up the price.

Click to expand...

I don't understand shorting a stock. Can you explain?

Shorting is promising to sell DJT, now selling for $X, for less, on such-and-such a date. You don’t buy the stock you promised to sell, you borrow the rights to sell it on that date. For that right, you pay a premium, or look at it as “rent” on the stock. If the stock goes up, you lose your rent. If it goes down, you can cash out by selling your “rental contract” before the contract date or by fulfilling the contract that date.
Right now DJT rents for prohibitive amounts. Normally people would start selling off their contracts once they start becoming annually anywhere near the cost of the stock itself, and DJT is 5-6 times that cost.

ZiprHead said:

Elixir said:

Jarhyn said:

What I'm shocked at is how so few people have short positions on this... It seems like a money maker for sure.

Click to expand...

Yawn. We been over this.
In order to “short” DJT and hold a short position on $1000 worth of the stock, your borrowing fee would add up to $5-6000 per year. (As of today 5/6/24).
Most shares were already shorted as soon as they were issued.
There is no control, no product, no real prospects other than the ability to get people to prop up the price.

Click to expand...

I don't understand shorting a stock. Can you explain?

Click to expand...

Basically, you sell it first, and buy it later.
But in order to have something to sell, you to have to “borrow” an actual real share from someone who does own it. Because it has to be a real share that you sell.

They lend you the stock today, to sell, and you promise to “buy” it from them later at whatever the price is on the day you agreed to, or on the day they “call it in.”

So the transaction is that you (A) borrow the share from B and sell it to C at today’s higher (assuming it’s going to tank) price. The share is now owned by C, and you took the cash from C and you owe B an amount at the day of your agreed-upon “buy”. You’re not buying actual stock from B on this “call in” day, because you already got it. But you’re paying B finally for what you “borrowed and sold.” Your hope (expectation) is that the price tanks by the time you pay B back, and your income from C far exceeds your payment to B. Meanwhile B was an optimistic sucker who thought it was going to go up and leave you holding the bag.

Now, why would they lend it to you?
Because they think you’re wrong aboout the price going down, and expect you to have to buy it later for more than you sold it for. OR (or AND) they charge you rent for the duration of time between when you sell, and when you later buy. And right now the idea of that particular stock actually going up is sketchy, so the rents are high.


If this feels murky, think of it as a farmer selling grain.
The farmer “sells” the grain in April. But she hasn’t actually grown the grain yet. But she sells it (as a “future”) at $10/bu with a promise to deliver the grain in August, knowing that it’s in the ground and going to grow.

The short seller does the same. Sells the DJT stock now, planning to pay for it in the future to the person he’s borrowed from. And he does have to borrow it, he can’t make it up.

So two problems with shorting DJT stock:
1. The people who have it are charging large fees to lend it to you.
2. The people who are willing to lend it - have all already done so, because so many people wanted to short this stock.

While I appreciate the explanation of shorting a stock, I still don't understand it. Not your fault. Frankly I'm a moron when it comes to this sort of stuff.

ZiprHead said:

While I appreciate the explanation of shorting a stock, I still don't understand it. Not your fault. Frankly I'm a moron when it comes to this sort of stuff.

Click to expand...

It's essentially making a bet that a stock will plumet, but apparently everyone knows that's going to happen so there's no money there.

A simple way to understand shorting is to work with negative numbers!

If I have 30 shares of XYZ (or any stock) and I sell 10 shares, I have 20 shares left. But if I have zero shares and sell 10, I have "-10 shares left" -- a negative number. Later I will buy ten shares to get my balance back to Zero. It's just like Buying-then-Selling but the order is reversed! First you Sell, later you Buy.

If it is a "covered" short sale -- as all shorts are in present-day U.S. markets IIUC -- then you must borrow the shares first before you can sell them. If your broker cannot find anyone who wants to lend their shares, he will deny your request to sell short. If he finds a lender, you will need to pay that shareholder any dividends paid on the stock during the period you've borrowed them, in addition to any other service charges. But the cash receipts from your sale are paid to your account.^* I think the service fees for borrowing are normally very small, but DJT is an exception!

(During the last century, "shorting against the box" was common. That's when you DO own the shares you want to sell, but you tell your broker to treat it as a short sale anyway, borrowing the shares from yourself. Why this weirdness? To avoid paying capital gains tax on the proceeds. The IRS imposed restrictions on this scam, and it may be prohibited altogether by now.)

Instead of a "covered" short sale, there is also a "naked" short sale, where you sell the shares without ever borrowing them. This is illegal and/or impossible today, but was done in the past. There were a variety of shenanigans in the 19th century involving the mega-moguls Vanderbilt, Gould, Drew, Fisk and Sage.

* - The mechanics of short sales is a good example of how the market is rigged against retail players. Suppose the interest rate is 5%, XYZ stock pays a 5% dividend, but I expect the stock price to decline by 3% during the next 12 months. I should get a 3% profit if I sell the stock short, right? I have to pay 5% in dividends to the stock lender, but that's compensated by the 5% interest on the cash I got by selling the borrowed shares; the 3% price decline is my profit. That's how it works if you're a big player, but NOT if you're a minor retail customer at most brokers. The cash you got by selling short is sequestered and no interest is paid on it, despite that it is real cash your broker can be using. In the example where the big player gets 3% profit, the small player takes a 2% loss.

It's understandable that the broker sequesters your cash: He's on the hook for the borrowed shares if you abscond to Tahiti (and will be e-mailing you frantically for more cash if the price of the shorted shares rises too much); but SHOULD pay interest on the real cash you got from the sale. And DOES pay interest if you're a "big player."

Instead of selling short, you can buy put options if you think a stock price is heading down. Much less nerve-wracking.

southernhybrid said:

Price gouging is a problem, plus inflation is a global problem, so how did Biden manage to cause inflation around the world? According to the Trumpers, everything is Biden's fault. And no, inflation isn't worse now than it was in 2021. It's down to about 3.5%. It was much higher during 2021, when Biden first took office. Idiocracy is here and it might throw he election to a narcissistic psychopath.

Click to expand...

Speaking of oil prices and price gouging...

The FTC Found That Scott Sheffield, Pioneer’s Founder, Past CEO, And Board Member “Colluded With OPEC” To Raise Crude Oil Prices. “The FTC said Thursday that Scott Sheffield, who founded Pioneer in 1997, colluded with OPEC and OPEC+ to potentially raise crude oil prices. Sheffield retired from the company in 2016, but he returned as president and CEO in 2019, served as CEO from 2021 to 2023, and continues to serve on the board. Since Jan. 1, he has served as special adviser to the company’s chief executive.” [Associated Press, 05/02/240]

ExxonMobil’s Profits Of $55 Billion Is The Most Any US Or European Oil Corporation Has Ever Made In A Year. ExxonMobil earned nearly $56 billion in profit in 2022, setting an annual record not just for itself but for any U.S. or European oil giant.” [NPR, 01/31/23]

ExxonMobil Used Its Extraordinary Profits To Boost Its CEO’s Total Compensation By $12.3 Million. The compensation package included a $6 million bonus and represented a 52% change over the previous year. [Securities and Exchange Commission, accessed 07/08/23]

ExxonMobil Began A $10B Share Buyback Effort in January 2022 Thanks to Its 2021 Profits. “Cash flow from operating activities increased to $48 billion, the highest since 2012. We used the available cash to restore our balance sheet, essentially paying back what we borrowed in 2020, reducing our debt-to-capital ratio to about 21%. As a result of our restored financial strength, we increased the annual dividend for the 39th consecutive year and announced a $10 billion share repurchase program that started last month.” [Motley Fool, 02/01/22]

CEO Darren Woods Said High Energy Prices Allowed Exxon to Have Capital to Conduct Share Buybacks “We are back on track to deliver the growth and earnings and cash flow we anticipated,” CEO Darren Woods said in an online event organized by the New York Times. Exxon can grow results “with a lot less capital.” Its recent cost cutting coupled with higher energy prices provides “capital that we can put into (share) buybacks,” Woods said. [OE Digital, 11/10/21]

Click to expand...

Swammerdami said:

I doubt that EVERYTHING is way more expensive.

Click to expand...

I don't buy EVERYTHING.

Swammerdami said:

There are PERCEPTIONS about pricing. For example, someone hoping that prices rise when a politician they dislike is in charge is likely to focus on prices which are up.

Click to expand...

but it certainly seems that everything I do buy is more expensive so that is what I focus on. Things like gas, groceries, maintenance, insurance etc.

I will say that beer prices have been pretty stable over the years.

I read an article years ago about long you need to work to pay for stuff instead of how many $ you pay. And it compared this over time. In 1960 my father had to work many hours to buy a TV. Not so much to put food on the table. Today you can get a flat screen at Walmart for a few hours of work.

The fact is that prices have gone up since COVID ended, people went back to work, and pent up demand for goods and services skyrocketed. Oil has certainly become more expensive, as Russia became subjected to sanctions. The pandemic, weather disruptions, and political instability have all served to disrupt supply chains in a globalized economy. American presidents aren't really in control of all those factors, but they are responsible for doing what they can to manage the US economy. Unfortunately, we are so polarized politically now that Congress suffers from paralysis and a "can't do" mentality. Joe Biden's team seems to have done a remarkably good job in the face of all that, but roughly half the country seems to think that Donald Trump and the team he would assemble to run the country could do a better job. Just like they did last time he was in charge.

And then there are those who can't change their spending habits or manage a household budget. It seems to be taken for granted that the President has something to do with their inability to manage their personal finances. On the bright side, the cost of a bottle of beer hasn't gone up so much.

TSwizzle said:

southernhybrid said:

Let's see what an actual economist says about the Biden economy,

Click to expand...

Economists can waffle all they want about Bidenomics but when your grocery bill is 60% more than it was a few years ago and gas is nearly $5 a gallon, well somebody has to take the fall for it.

Click to expand...

Gas has been basically flat for a long time. And pretty much what it was before things came apart.

Most groceries have similar regular prices (although eggs keep swinging wildly, often far above their old prices) but there are a lot fewer good sales. I think that's more marketing than price increases.

Toni said:

TSwizzle said:

GenesisNemesis said:

TSwizzle said:

southernhybrid said:

Let's see what an actual economist says about the Biden economy,

Click to expand...

Economists can waffle all they want about Bidenomics but when your grocery bill is 60% more than it was a few years ago and gas is nearly $5 a gallon, well somebody has to take the fall for it.

Click to expand...

Show that this is specifically Biden's fault. Show us the math.

Click to expand...

How could it not be Biden’s fault? He said it was temporary back in 2021. It’s not temporary, it’s worse.

Click to expand...

A big reason that prices have remained high is that CEO’s compensation has gotten even higher and so have corporate profits. The inflation is the direct result of the rich getting richer.

Click to expand...

CEO compensation is a bogeyman, almost never more than a tiny sliver of costs.

I do agree profits are up, but that's actually to be expected. When shortages trigger price increases they go up very fast, but the return to baseline is much slower.

southernhybrid said:

They blame Biden for the price of oil Duh! How does he manage to control the oil output around the world? What an amazing man! Sadly, too many people believe this shit. The only time gas prices were low during Trump's time in office was during the height of the pandemic when most people were staying home. Do any of these people understand the basics of supply and demand? People in my area drive a lot of gas guzzling trucks and SUVs. Of course that drives up the price of gas.

Click to expand...

Biden is clearly at fault on the oil.

The thing is, Russia is a big exporter of fossil fuel. The war is messing with that and oil is very sensitive to supply and demand.

Thus by helping Ukraine resist he actually is driving up the price of gas. Trump would like to offer up Ukraine as a present for Putin, that probably would bring gas down.

This does not mean that Biden's wrong, though. Higher gas is simply part of the cost of defending Ukraine.

TSwizzle said:

Male bovine excrement. Gala apples used to be about $.49 per pound, they have been over $1.99 per pound for over a year now. Meat prices are horrendously expensive. Everything is way more expensive. Gas is well over $5 a gallon in SoCal.

Click to expand...

$1.99/# is way above anything I've seen for Gala. And apples are rarely consistently as low as $.49/#. You're noticing the extremes and thinking they are representative.

TSwizzle said:

GenesisNemesis said:

TSwizzle said:

GenesisNemesis said:

You heard it here first folks. As long as someone is wrong about an issue that makes the issue their fault.

Click to expand...

You heard it here first folks, Biden has no faults, everything is just fine.

Click to expand...

Never once claimed Biden has no faults. But I'd vote for him over Trump because Trump has even more faults. Including destructive tendencies like narcissism. "THE GAS PRICESSS" simply isn't one of things I fault Biden on.

Click to expand...

Of course you will vote for Brandon.

Click to expand...

My marriage is interracial and my wife is an immigrant, obtained residence through our marriage. I would be worried about her safety under His Flatulence. And I would expect to lose my health insurance and have to pay out of pocket.

I find it amusing when Americans complain about the price of gas (petrol in Australia) as our regular prices are similar to your peak prices, whilst our max price is much higher. There are a lot of taxes on Australian petrol.

Spacetime Inhabitant said:

I find it amusing when Americans complain about the price of gas (petrol in Australia) as our regular prices are similar to your peak prices, whilst our max price is much higher. There are a lot of taxes on Australian petrol.

Click to expand...

I find it amusing when Australians complain about the price of petrol. When I moved here from the UK, petrol prices in the UK then were roughly what I pay for petrol in Brisbane now.

That was in 1994.